Evaluating Recruitment Channel Effectiveness with Causal Inference and Predictive Analytics

Abstract

In the context of fierce market competition and increasing talent demand, effective recruitment channels are crucial for enterprises to attract high-quality talents, reduce recruitment costs, and enhance core competitiveness. However, traditional recruitment channel evaluation methods mainly rely on descriptive statistics (such as cost per hire and recruitment cycle), which fail to accurately identify the causal relationship between recruitment channels and recruitment outcomes, leading to inaccurate evaluation results and irrational allocation of recruitment resources. To solve this problem, this study proposes a recruitment channel effectiveness evaluation framework that combines causal inference and predictive analytics. The framework first uses causal inference methods (propensity score matching, PSM) to eliminate the confounding effect of individual differences between candidates from different channels, thereby accurately measuring the causal impact of each recruitment channel on key recruitment outcomes (such as candidate quality, hiring rate, and post-hiring performance). Then, predictive analytics models (random forest, logistic regression) are used to predict the future effectiveness of each recruitment channel, providing data support for the optimal allocation of recruitment resources. Experiments based on real recruitment data from a large manufacturing enterprise show that the proposed framework not only improves the accuracy of recruitment channel evaluation but also effectively predicts the future performance of each channel. Compared with traditional evaluation methods, the framework can more accurately identify high-efficiency and low-efficiency recruitment channels, helping enterprises optimize their recruitment strategies, reduce recruitment costs, and improve recruitment efficiency. This research provides a practical and standardized method for recruitment channel evaluation, which can be widely applied in various enterprises and industries.