Generative Diffusion Models for Option Pricing: A Novel Framework for Modeling Volatility Dynamics in U.S. Financial Markets
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.70393/6a69656173.333338ARK:
https://n2t.net/ark:/40704/JIEAS.v3n6a04Disciplines:
Artificial Intelligence TechnologySubjects:
Machine LearningReferences:
35Keywords:
Generative AI, Diffusion Model, Option Pricing, Volatility Surface, U.S. Market, Financial InnovationAbstract
This study proposes a generative diffusion modeling framework to estimate option prices and volatility surfaces in U.S. financial markets. Unlike conventional stochastic volatility models, the diffusion model learns the data-generating process directly from historical option chains and market images. The approach converts price trajectories into “market images” and employs conditional diffusion to generate realistic future states, enabling robust and data-driven option valuation. The method demonstrates superior accuracy under extreme market conditions, providing valuable insights for U.S. risk management and derivative policy design. This research contributes to the national interest by advancing AI-driven financial modeling and supporting the technological edge of U.S. quantitative finance.
Downloads
Metrics
References
[1] Sun, Y., & Ortiz, J. (2024). An AI-Based System Utilizing IoT-Enabled Ambient Sensors and LLMs for Complex Activity Tracking. Academic Journal of Science and Technology, 11(3), 277–281.
[2] Chen, Y. (2025). Interpretable Automated Machine Learning for Asset Pricing in US Capital Markets. Journal of Economic Theory and Business Management, 2(5), 15-21.
[3] Tian, Y., Yang, Z., Liu, C., Su, Y., Hong, Z., Gong, Z., & Xu, J. (2025). CenterMamba-SAM: Center-Prioritized Scanning and Temporal Prototypes for Brain Lesion Segmentation. arXiv preprint arXiv:2511.01243.
[4] Tao Y. Meta Learning Enabled Adversarial Defense, 2023 IEEE International Conference on Sensors, Electronics and Computer Engineering (ICSECE). IEEE, 2023: 1326-1330.
[5] Chen, Yinlei. "Daily Asset Pricing Based on Deep Learning: Integrating No-Arbitrage Constraints and Market Dynamics." Journal of Computer Technology and Applied Mathematics 2.6 (2025): 1-10.
[6] Ren, L. (2025). Leveraging Large Language Models for Anomaly Event Early Warning in Financial Systems. European Journal of AI, Computing & Informatics, 1(3), 69-76.
[7] Wang, H., Li, Q., & Liu, Y. (2022). Regularized Buckley–James method for right‐censored outcomes with block‐missing multimodal covariates. Stat, 11(1), e515.
[8] Ren, L. (2025). Causal Modeling for Fraud Detection: Enhancing Financial Security with Interpretable AI. European Journal of Business, Economics & Management, 1(4), 94-104.
[9] Jin, Y., Li, Z., Zhang, C., Cao, T., Gao, Y., Jayarao, P., ... & Yin, B. (2024). Shopping mmlu: A massive multi-task online shopping benchmark for large language models. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 37, 18062-18089.
[10] Zhang, Z., Li, S., Zhang, Z., Liu, X., Jiang, H., Tang, X., ... & Jiang, M. (2025). IHEval: Evaluating language models on following the instruction hierarchy. arXiv preprint arXiv:2502.08745.
[11] Chen, Y. (2025). Artificial Intelligence in Economic Applications: Stock Trading, Market Analysis, and Risk Management. Journal of Economic Theory and Business Management, 2(5), 7-14.
[12] Ren, L. (2025). Boosting algorithm optimization technology for ensemble learning in small sample fraud detection. Academic Journal of Engineering and Technology Science, 8(4), 53-60.
[13] Liu, Z. (2022, January 20–22). Stock volatility prediction using LightGBM based algorithm. In 2022 International Conference on Big Data, Information and Computer Network (BDICN) (pp. 283–286). IEEE.
[14] Liu, Z. (2025). Human-AI Co-Creation: A Framework for Collaborative Design in Intelligent Systems. arXiv:2507.17774.
[15] Ren, L. (2025). Reinforcement Learning for Prioritizing Anti-Money Laundering Case Reviews Based on Dynamic Risk Assessment. Journal of Economic Theory and Business Management, 2(5), 1-6.
[16] Li, K., Chen, X., Song, T., Zhou, C., Liu, Z., Zhang, Z., Guo, J., & Shan, Q. (2025a, March 24). Solving situation puzzles with large language model and external reformulation.
[17] Li, K., Chen, X., Song, T., Zhang, H., Zhang, W., & Shan, Q. (2024). GPTDrawer: Enhancing Visual Synthesis through ChatGPT. arXiv preprint arXiv:2412.10429.
[18] Luo, M., Zhang, W., Song, T., Li, K., Zhu, H., Du, B., & Wen, H. (2021, January). Rebalancing expanding EV sharing systems with deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence (pp. 1338-1344).
[19] Zhu, H., Luo, Y., Liu, Q., Fan, H., Song, T., Yu, C. W., & Du, B. (2019). Multistep flow prediction on car-sharing systems: A multi-graph convolutional neural network with attention mechanism. International Journal of Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering, 29(11n12), 1727–1740.
[20] Liu, Z. (2025). Reinforcement Learning for Prompt Optimization in Language Models: A Comprehensive Survey of Methods, Representations, and Evaluation Challenges. ICCK Transactions on Emerging Topics in Artificial Intelligence, 2(4), 173-181.
[21] Wang, H., Li, Q., & Liu, Y. (2023). Adaptive supervised learning on data streams in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces with data sparsity constraint. Stat, 12(1), e514.
[22] Wang, H., Sun, W., & Liu, Y. (2022). Prioritizing autism risk genes using personalized graphical models estimated from single-cell rna-seq data. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 117(537), 38-51.
[23] Wang, P., Wang, H., Li, Q., Shen, D., & Liu, Y. (2024). Joint and individual component regression. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 33(3), 763-773.
[24] Zhao, P., Liu, X., Su, X., Wu, D., Li, Z., Kang, K., ... & Zhu, A. (2025). Probabilistic Contingent Planning Based on Hierarchical Task Network for High-Quality Plans. Algorithms, 18(4), 214.
[25] Wu, S., Fu, L., Chang, R., Wei, Y., Zhang, Y., Wang, Z., ... & Li, K. (2025). Warehouse robot task scheduling based on reinforcement learning to maximize operational efficiency. Authorea Preprints.
[26] He, Y., Wang, J., Li, K., Wang, Y., Sun, L., Yin, J., ... & Wang, X. (2025). Enhancing Intent Understanding for Ambiguous Prompts through Human-Machine Co-Adaptation. arXiv preprint arXiv:2501.15167.
[27] Tao Y. SQBA: sequential query-based blackbox attack, Fifth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Computer Science (AICS 2023). SPIE, 2023, 12803: 721-729.
[28] Wang, J., Zhang, Z., He, Y., Song, Y., Shi, T., Li, Y., ... & He, L. (2024). Enhancing Code LLMs with Reinforcement Learning in Code Generation. arXiv preprint arXiv:2412.20367.
[29] Liang, X., Tao, M., Xia, Y., Shi, T., Wang, J., & Yang, J. (2024). Self-evolving Agents with reflective and memory-augmented abilities. arXiv preprint arXiv:2409.00872.
[30] He, Y., Li, S., Li, K., Wang, J., Li, B., Shi, T., ... & Wang, X. (2025). Enhancing Low-Cost Video Editing with Lightweight Adaptors and Temporal-Aware Inversion. arXiv preprint arXiv:2501.04606.
[31] Wang J, Tse K T, Li S W. Integrating the effects of climate change using representative concentration pathways into typhoon wind field in Hong Kong[C]//Proceedings of the 8th European African Conference on Wind Engineering. 2022: 20-23.
[32] Yiyi Tao, Zhuoyue Wang, Hang Zhang, Lun Wang. 2024. NEVLP: Noise-Robust Framework for Efficient Vision-Language Pre-training. arXiv:2409.09582.
[33] Wang J, Chang Y, Cao S, et al. Explanatory framework of typhoon extreme wind speed predictions integrating the effects of climate changes[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2025, 63(3): 142.
[34] Wang Y, Wang J, Chang Y, et al. Graph-theoretical investigation of trajectory dynamics and size characteristics in tropical cyclones[J]. Natural Hazards, 2025: 1-18.
[35] Yiyi Tao, Yiling Jia, Nan Wang, and Hongning Wang. 2019. The FacT: Taming Latent Factor Models for Explainability with Factorization Trees. In Proceedings of the 42nd International ACM SIGIR Conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieval (SIGIR'19). Association for Computing Machinery, New York, NY, USA, 295–304.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
ARK
License
Copyright (c) 2025 The author retains copyright and grants the journal the right of first publication.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.







